February 07, 2008
CPAC 2008 CHAPTER ONE: Initial Impressions
I’m not much into omens, but the first visual indication I had prognosticating the outcome of CPAC was laying in the gutter at the corner of 24th and Calvert NW.
Last year at CPAC, the Washington Times used their CPAC Day One front page to lambast John McCain for being too chicken to show at CPAC. This year, their front page story suggests that he needs to woo the right.
While CPAC hasn’t officially started yet, there are already a lot of people here and the hustle and bustle of GOP presidential politics is in the air. I walked across the Exhibit Hall looking for some friends to store my laptop for me, and decided check out the Conservatives for John McCain booth.
Guess what? Despite the fact that hundreds and hundreds of people are here already, I couldn’t find a single McCain conservative. As a matter of fact, their booth was empty, as the picture below (click to enlarge) depicts. If I find a McCain conservative at CPAC, I’ll try to interview him or her. As these are hot button topics for me, I’ll be curious about the McCainian “conservative” defense of McCain-Feingold, as well has his refusal to sign Grover Norquist’s pledge.
UPDATE: I did just find a conservative McCain—but it was a McCain of a different order. This McCain was Robert Stacy McCain of the Washington Times, a man who actually likes to cut taxes and spending and despises First Amendment restrictions.
If CPAC participants and leadership end up responding responding to McCain positively, perhaps they should change the name of their future conferences to NeoPAC.
February 07, 2008 03:11 PM
The Fox affiliate in Hampton Roads reports:
With their signatures, residents are voicing their belief the accused killer, Ryan Frederick, was in the right when he fired that gun as police officers were trying to come through his front door to serve a drug search warrant.
"It left me where I couldn't sleep," said Frederick's neighbor, Sandra Brooks.
Brooks says she will never forget the terror she heard that night in the voices of the officers.
"The panic in their voices, I have a hard time talking about it, I start to tear up, but the panic in their voices as they screamed 'we need CPR, where are the medics?'"
Brooks says her heart goes out to Detective Shivers' family and fellow officers, but she also agrees with the people signing the poster in support of Frederick.
"I believe he was sincere that he did not know what was going on when the officers were coming into the house," said Brooks.
The article also quotes an attorney who says Frederick may be guilty if he was indiscriminately firing through the door. I'll have to do a bit of research into the specifics of Virginia's self-defense law. We also still don't know if Shivers was shot through the door, or after he had made his way through the doorway to Frederick's home. But if someone's attempting to break down your door, I would think you could reasonably assume they present an immediate threat to your safety. Frederick's case probably gets a lot stronger if the police knew he'd been burglarized a few days prior. That would certainly go to his state of mind, and probably should have factored into the way they decided to apprehend him.
In any case, it's good to see at least part of the community is rallying behind him. I've seen more and more acquaintances, co-workers, and friends sticking up for him on various message boards, too. It would be an absolute travesty if this guy were to get life, or worse.
There's also now a MySpace page in support of Frederick. I received an email this morning saying there may soon be a legal defense fund, too.
Prior posts on this case here.
February 07, 2008 02:21 PM
Jonathan Rauch tells policymakers to stop confusing exporting democracy with spreading peace.
February 07, 2008 01:20 PM
Eric Garris and Anthony Gregory have co-written an article over at LRC which provides a compelling case for Ron Paul to consider running for the Libertarian Party nomination. Here’s the main thrust of their argument:
Ron Paul should run as a third-party candidate. He has already done an immeasurable amount of good and he could retire now, with us owing him an enormous debt for his tireless efforts and sacrifice. But we ask Ron to continue his run. For the sake of his supporters, the movement, and American liberty, this country needs a credible alternative on the November ballot to the bipartisan policies of ever-expanding government and perpetual war.
Ron Paul should seek the Libertarian nomination for president. It is his logical home. He is a member of the Libertarian Party, he ran in 1988, and an overwhelming majority of party members want a chance to support him again. Should he run as an independent, he would not have the ballot access that the LP offers. He would also have less of a chance of leaving behind a cohesive mass movement for liberty.
The Libertarian Party has never had an opportunity like this. Ron Paul has polled 8% in a hypothetical general election against a Republican, Democrat and other candidate (Nader), and he gets most of those votes from non-Republicans. This poll result is gigantic, surpassing past LP results many times over. Such a turnout would benefit the movement for many years to come. Some seasoned electoral libertarians might be reluctant, thinking it cannot turn out so well, given past experience, but they must understand that this is an entirely anomalous opportunity. Nothing in the past compares. Perhaps this would explain why a plurality of LP voters have made write-in votes in California and declared themselves “uncommitted” in Missouri, instead of picking from the long list of LP candidates: A good number of them might very well be holding out for Ron.
Here’s one point about which I’d like to add some additional information:
This would not mean he would have to abandon his congressional seat. Texas has a sore loser law, meaning he would not be able to appear on the state ballot as a Libertarian running for president. But in Texas the party could nominate his wife, Carol Paul, and everybody would know what it meant.
It’s important to keep in mind that under the rules currently in place in this Republic, citizens actually cast their votes for presidential electors, not directly to the candidate. The “wink, wink, nudge, nudge” approach would certainly work in this case.
Garris and Gregory discuss the areas where there might be some perceied deviance from the LP platform:
Some might object on the grounds that Paul is not like most Libertarians on certain social issues. And yet this incongruity is not nearly as significant as it may seem. Paul’s federal plank on abortion, for example – the relegation of the issue back to the states – is identical to that of the last three Libertarian presidential campaigns. His position on immigration is nuanced, shared by a huge portion of LP members, and focused more on slashing welfare than building a Tancredo-style police state.
Indeed, in practical terms, running as a “true conservative” has not worked, regardless of how much stress was put on his pro-life and pro-borders positions. In fact, Paul has polled much better among pro-choicers – who are two to three times as likely to support him as pro-lifers – and other moderates. Conservatives, Christians and other traditional constituencies on the right are far, far more likely to back the typical candidates; it is the self-described liberals, the antiwar constituency, the moderates and other non-red-state Fascists who have been enthusiastic about the Paul campaign.
While Ron Paul should certainly not abandon cultural conservatives, or any of his natural constituencies, his campaign’s rightward strategy has failed. The Republican establishment and most GOP voters hardly gave Paul a chance. Most folks who really want less government probably left the party long ago. Every exit poll and detailed pre-polls showed Republicans were the least likely to vote for Ron Paul. States with open primaries showed him getting three to five times as many votes from Democrats and independents as from Republicans.
As one might expect from Garris and Anthony, they also addressed the war issue:
War alone explains why so many conservatives who agree with Ron Paul on everything from taxes and gun rights to immigration and abortion have been willing to pull the lever for candidates who promise more big government, more central administration from Washington DC and piles of social spending. For them and Ron Paul alike, war is the single most important issue. It just so happens that they’re wrong on it, and he’s right.
It is telling that while these conservatives who ostensibly agree with Paul on most things except the war oppose him, many Americans who disagree with him on abortion, immigration, and other domestic policy questions energetically support him. It is the sign of a political realignment – bigger government and much smaller government finally being pitted against each other, with the paramount issue of foreign policy at last getting the central importance it deserves.
From my practical experience, the Iraq War issue has easily been the deciding factor in keeping most Republicans from any consideration of supporting Dr. Paul. I strongly suspected this would be the case from the moment there were rumors of a Ron Paul exploratory committee, and every bit of work I’ve done for the campaign since this has verified my speculation. Most Republicans love them some war, whether the war is justified or not.
Here are the concluding arguments of their article:
Now that the Republican Party has reminded us, once again, this time decisively, that it is not a party for liberty or small government – and especially not a party of peace – it is time for Ron Paul to leave that bloodthirsty, corporatist coalition and lead our movement to future victories.
We’ve all loved seeing him in the debates. Imagine him in the national spotlight in the general election. Picture him against McCain and Hillary, the one man standing for freedom and peace with two other choices clearly on the same side – the side of bureaucracy, entitlements, the prison-industrial complex and aggressive militarism.
As the primaries end, it is up to Ron Paul to ensure that it is only the beginning for his Revolution. Let us hope he decides to keep up the fight.
UPDATE: Mark Thornton and Thomas Woods have just published a similar article over at LRC.
February 07, 2008 12:27 PM
Does anyone think that pro-Patriot Act, anti-gay marriage Libertarian Party presidential wannabe Daniel Imperato picked the wrong political party? Here’s the latest interview from the “Papal Knight, Knight of Malta and knight of the Orden Bonaria:”
February 07, 2008 11:48 AM
I guess there is more than one way to skin spin a cat. The topic is the Green and Libertarian Party ballot access suit in North Carolina. Here’s one way of looking at it:
In addition, noted attorney Michael Crowell, representing the Libertarians, the number of required signatures will continue to increase as North Carolina’s population grows. “The evil of the 2 percent is that it will keep going up.” he argued in court. [...]
Robert Elliot, cooperating attorney for the American Civil Liberties Union, said the Greens and the Libertarians, which have elected officials in other states, “aren’t going away. They have a platform of ideas and are two legitimate political parties.”
It seems that the judge even agreed, at least to some degree:
Last week, Superior Court Judge Leon Stanback Jr. told the small, but packed Wake County courtroom that “personally I think 5,000 or 10,000 signatures should be enough, but the legislature hasn’t seen that it’s sufficient.” He chose not to rule on the constitutionality of the state ballot access law, and instead sent the case to trial. A date hasn’t been set, but the lawsuit is expected to be heard in March.
Then there is the state, which seems to view its role as the protector of the Republicans and Democrats:
The state argued that lowering the bar on ballot access requirements would invite rogue parties to run, thus cluttering the ballot and confusing voters. Nonetheless, from 1929 to 1981, parties had to collect just 10,000 signatures; in one election cycle, the limit was reduced to 5,000. Only in the early ‘80s, when the Communist Party and the Socialist Workers Party appeared on the ballot, did the state legislature pass a law upping the requirements.
Alec Peters of the N.C. Attorney General’s office countered that North Carolina elects upwards of 10 executive offices, which already crowds the ballot. “The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that states have an interest in avoiding ballot confusion and clutter.”
I’m not sure which argument is more asinine, rogue parties or ballot clutter. The Libertarian Party has roughly a dozen presidential candidates at the moment. It didn’t notice any confusion from ballot clutter during Super Tuesday primary elections.
With respect to rogue parties, whatever that might mean, the Libertarian Party deals with this issue, too. If we don’t like someone, we simply don’t vote for the person. If there was ever a rogue LP candidate this election cycle, it’s Daniel Imperato. I’ll stake my paycheck on it, Imperato won’t win the Libertarian Party nomination.
Too bad Republican and Democratic leadership in North Carolina doesn’t think the average citizen is as smart as the average third party voter. I honestly think they can actually handle more than two choices.
February 07, 2008 11:41 AM
“As Peggy Noonan points out with some bitterness, George W. Bush destroyed the GOP — and we are looking at the wreckage of the party in the results of Tuesday’s remarkably inconclusive primary. What’s significant is that the neocons have split with the ‘movement’ conservatives, and the bloodletting has only just begun. In the event McCain gets the nomination, the field is open for a third party to come in from the right and cash in on McCain-ophobia. Think of it: Rush Limbaugh singing the 32 praises of Ron Paul. As the Libertarian-Constitution third party candidate challenging both McCain and Hillary (or Obama, if the improbable happens), Paul would garner support from conservatives who hate McCain as well as from antiwar voters on the left.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:48 AM
“The Ron Paul Revolution has been the greatest distinctly libertarian phenomenon in modern American history. Ron Paul has already achieved an unsurpassed victory in electoral politics — spreading the message of individual liberty, free markets, the rule of law, sound money and peace. Now that it is certain that the Republican Party will pass up the opportunity of a lifetime and nominate another champion of the welfare/warfare state instead of the one candidate who actually stands for fiscal responsibility and limited government, it is time to consider how Ron’s campaign can reach its full potential in cultivating a freedom movement whose legacy will last far into the future. Ron Paul should run as a third-party candidate.” (02/07/08)
February 07, 2008 10:47 AM
“[I]f the mortgage meltdown continues, we could see many bank and business failures … hundreds of thousands of families out on the streets … and a major recession in 2008. In the wake of all of this calamitous news, it isn’t surprising that the government has taken action. Specifically, President Bush has called for a ‘voluntary’ 5-year freeze on low introductory mortgage rates for families now making payments but unable to afford higher rates. Only primary home owners would qualify, and they must have a perfect record of home payments. Once such a measure is introduced, it would likely expand. Indeed, others are already proposing a permanent, mandatory freeze in rates. While the desire to ‘do something,’ about the mortgage crisis is natural, a mortgage rate freeze is unlikely to do more than prolong the grief and could well turn what would have been a short recession into a protracted depression.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:46 AM
“Ed was just minding his own business. According to an article in the News & Advance of Lynchburg, Virginia, Ed wasn’t harming anyone, or threatening to harm anyone, or defrauding anyone. But that didn’t stop the state of Virginia from charging Ed with misdemeanors and felonies and booking him into the crowbar motel sans bail. What Ed is guilty of is failure to abide by some rules that the rules-makers made. Ed carried a gun into a school — a felony in today’s gun-freaked USSA but merely a rules violation in a free society where government is forbidden to involve itself in education (i.e., indoctrination) and therefore every school is private and perfectly capable of writing its own rules, pro or con, concerning pistol-packing.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:45 AM
“How one might wish the American people use a bit of logic and common sense in interpreting actions being taken by the US Government and, hence, the American people. Because, no matter how you cut it, the bottom line is that whatever the federal government does, the world sees it as reflecting the will of the American people. Possibly not all world citizens see it this way — bin Laden who has stated repeatedly his vendetta is not against the American people but, instead, the American government — but most.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:44 AM
“In the wake of the LP’s Super Tuesday, earnest LP partisans promptly started spinning the results, just like major-party politicos do. In the comments at Third Party Watch, Tom Knapp spins the Super Tuesday outcome by saying it leaves us with a two-man race between his man Steve Kubby and (not surprisingly) the top-tier candidate least likely to draw votes from self-described radical Kubby — Wayne Root. Kubby explains away Root’s 1st-place finish [sic] in Missouri (doubling Kubby’s total) as a predictable result of ballot position (that Knapp apparently didn’t predict).” [editor’s note: Actually, I’ve publicly referred numerous times to Missouri LP primaries’ tendency to deliver the victory to the top name on the ballot. Not that that would be applicable here, since the top name on the ballot (Root’s) came in second, not first, in Tuesday’s primary, and nearly 30% behind the first-place finisher, “uncommitted” - TLK] (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:41 AM
“Rev. Huckabee claims that the Republican race is a two-man race and he’s one of the two men. Rev. Huck is used to believing the implausible and impossible — after all, he is a theologian. But if anything is true about Rev. Huck’s showing, it is that the man has no support outside the Bible Belt. As the average IQ rises in the state the vote percentage for Hillbilly Huck drops.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:37 AM
“Congress and the White House, Democrats and Republicans finally agree on something. We need a stimulus package, they intone. The economy is stagnating, unemployment is climbing, families can’t pay their bills. We have to prime the pump, reduce interest rates, increase unemployment benefits, provide temporary tax relief. These unlicensed physicians are prescribing aspirin to counteract the poisons they routinely inject into our economy, while they prepare even bigger doses of arsenic.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:35 AM
“Car insurance mandates present you with a choice: If you don’t want to pay, you don’t buy a car or you get rid of yours. But what does this mean for health insurance? If you don’t want to pay, you don’t get a life, or you get rid of yours? ‘You have to buy health insurance.’ ‘Why?’ ‘You’re alive.’ ‘So if I committed suicide I wouldn’t have to?’ ‘I guess not.’ No sane person would present her fellow citizens with this choice. And since no one thinks Clinton is insane, she must simply miss the fact that this is what she is doing.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:32 AM
“John McCain’s gleeful proclamation on Tuesday evening that he is the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination could only have intensified the despairing rage of his party’s far right. For months the zealots have watched helplessly as the Arizona senator, who built his maverick reputation by taunting and tweaking them, clambered back into contention by humbling their would-be champions. Suddenly, the conservative cause found its last hopes reposing in the likes of Mitt Romney, a dubious convert, and Mike Huckabee, a suspect populist. That desperate situation, which displayed the political disarray of their movement, only got worse for conservatives as McCain moved inexorably closer to victory on Tuesday night. And now they will have to listen to his claim that he is a legitimate heir to Ronald Reagan and decide whether to line up dutifully behind a man they have despised for a decade.” (02/07/08)
February 07, 2008 10:29 AM
“With so many states on record opposing REAL ID, the feds have been shifting through numerous stories trying to justify their national ID. First, they said it was a national security tool. But by now everyone realizes how easy it would be for criminal organizations and terrorists to avoid or defeat a national ID system. Then REAL ID became a way to control illegal immigration. But it has the same defects here too. Illegal immigrants will use a mix of forgery, fraud, and corruption at any motor vehicles bureau in the country to get around REAL ID. Driving illegal immigrants further into criminality deepens the problem rather than fixing it. And should law-abiding American citizens really have to carry a national ID to get at illegal immigrants? Just who is the criminal here? Next, we were told that having a national ID was about identity fraud. But putting our personal information, Social Security Numbers, and basic identity documents like birth certificates into a nationwide string of government databases is a recipe for more identity theft, not less.” (02/07/08)
February 07, 2008 10:27 AM
“In a rare, high-level slap at statist orthodoxy, an international conference held in Vancouver, B.C., intended to advise the United Nations on drug policy, focused the majority of its attention on legalization. Canadian prohibitionist Judi Lalonde even complained, ‘Representation from the groups for legalization are probably about 95 percent, to possibly 5 percent in the area of prevention. I’m quite disappointed with the whole process of the last few days.’ The Vancouver Sun was sufficiently incensed by the pro-legalization consensus that it editorialized against any loosening of restrictions on politically incorrect narcotics and attacked Jack Cole, founder of Law Enforcement Against Prohibition, for his organization’s support of across-the-board legalization. Well, it’s nice to see the handcuffs-and-prison brigade feel threatened for once.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:24 AM
“If Karl Rove thought claims about the conservative crackup were premature, the voters didn’t listen. The early election results Tuesday suggested the GOP is still deeply split. This week, conservative commentators like Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, and Ann Coulter all rallied against John McCain, telling their listeners to back Mitt Romney. Forget Huckabee, they’ve argued, a vote for him only ensures that the apostate McCain will win. … These loud voices of protest were thoroughly ignored.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:08 AM
“Mitt Romney is a smart and talented man who has run a vigorous campaign based mostly on conservative issues. He vows to keep fighting all the way to the convention. But he took third place in several Southern states on Super Tuesday, a dismal showing for someone attempting to rally conservatives. He has our support. But it is now up to him to identify a plausible path to the nomination. Sen. John McCain’s amazing comeback is a testament to the power of perseverance, conviction, and luck. It has been good to see his strength on Iraq rewarded. For the Republican nomination to be worth his having, however, he needs to consolidate his support on the Right — ideally, before the fall.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:05 AM
“None of this is to say Romney was the only candidate who got mired in the immigration fever swamps. Twenty-one years ago, seeking the Libertarian Party nomination for president, Ron Paul filled out a CNN questionnaire with unashamed open borders answers. Asked whether ‘the new immigration bill’ was ’solving the problem,’ he wrote ‘no’ and that the way to fix it was ‘open all borders.’ Paul opposed strengthening the U.S. border patrol and making English ‘the official U.S. language.’ But in April 2006, just as the current immigration maelstrom starting churning, Paul demanded that the government ‘allocate far more resources, both in terms of money and manpower, to securing our borders’ as the only way to solve ‘immigration problems and the threat of foreign terrorists.’ And Paul ran hard on immigration this year. … More than a week before Super Tuesday I asked Paul why his stance had evolved or whether he was trying to just win votes.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 10:04 AM
Cartoon. [Flash format] (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 09:52 AM
“[T]he Romney campaign suffered serious and likely mortal wounds last night. The trouble isn’t so much that John McCain’s delegate lead is insurmountable, although it is significant. And Romney’s problem isn’t that John McCain will get an enormous bounce out of yesterday’s wins. This is the year of no bouncing. Romney’s problem is that the fully mature version of his campaign has faced the fully mature versions of the Huckabee and McCain campaigns all over the country. Romney hasn’t done well. Although past performances don’t necessarily guarantee the results of future contests, it’s tough to picture what Romney can do to shake up the race and begin getting those extra votes he’ll need in each future state to turn losses into victories.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 09:51 AM
“It might be argued that a country ceases to be underdeveloped when its citizens shift their anger from other people’s wealth to the quality of the services their own wealth is paying for. Chile is perhaps the world’s best example. For the past two years, President Michelle Bachelet has faced a national malaise that has manifested itself in violent student protests, strikes affecting copper mining and the forestry industry, and the gradual unraveling of the coalition that has governed since 1990.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 09:46 AM
“The Federal Reserve has cut the fed-funds rate to 3 percent from 5 1/4 percent since last September. Some Fed critics dismiss that as ‘too little too late.’ Others suggest it’s too much or too soon — risking a return of 1970s stagflation. Still others say it won’t matter — that the Fed is just ‘pushing on a string.’ They’re all wrong.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 09:45 AM
“So why do a crashing spy satellite and a partly dark Internet mean we’ve entered the age of information dystopia? Quite simply, they are signs that our brave new infrastructure is failing around us even as we claim that it offers a shining path to the future. It’s as if the future is breaking down before we get a chance to realize its potential. But the information age doesn’t have to end this way, in a world where can-and-string-network jokes aren’t so funny anymore. There are a few simple things we could do.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 09:35 AM
“Irrespective of all the in-depth political analysis that deals far too specifically with each candidate’s professed policies and appeal to voters, the bulk of this campaign season is primarily being driven on both sides by pragmatism born of fear. The base of each party is currently motivated not by any inspired support for one or more of its own candidates, but always and only out of a dread of how the country might suffer at the hands of the candidate from the opposing party. And the situation has remained in this dismal mode since the onset of the ‘08 campaign.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 09:32 AM
Our Team placed 4th out of 159.
I live in Griffin Georgia, It is a small milltown (no mills anymore). It is a great place to raise a family. It is not a hot bed for Libertarians or Liberty lovers. In the election of 2006 we were in the middle of the pack for % in votes for Libertarians on the statewide ballots. There is 159 counties in Georgia.
Something odd happen. We placed fourth out of the 159 counties this election.What happen? Luck? No. We had one of the best teams in Georgia. I will name a few and I will miss people so I am sorry for that. Megan, Fritz,Bill,Garred, Phat boy, Cathy, Ben, Hal, Cathy (not the same), Chris ,Josh, Gabriel, Megan's entire family ,David, Misty,Troy,Rob, Steve and many more.
These people busted their tails. The campaign was ran like something you would read in a campaign book. We had sign waiving,door to door work, people calling ,mail outs. people placing yard sign. a billboard we all pitch in on in downtown, we ran ads three times in the local paper. we made the front page in the Sunday paper and we ran TV ads. It was great. Of all the people helping I was the only person who had worked on a campaign before, and this group was doing great before I showed up.
I hope when all this is said and done I have these people on my side going forward. If I was going to battle this is the team I would want.
If anybody has questions please call me at 770-861-5855. I will help you in any way that I can.
February 07, 2008 09:21 AM
Over at Third Party Watch, Steve Gordon
notes a sudden change of line from the Ron Paul R3VOLution crowd: From urging Libertarians to re-register as Republicans and support Paul in the GOP primaries, to urging Paul to run for the Libertarian Party's presidential nomination.
All this accompanied, of course, by the cry that the GOP bid was doomed from the start anyway, and by a return to the old
LRC line on "red state fascism" and the fundamental unfitness of the Republican Party as a vehicle for liberty -- i.e. pretty much the same things I've been telling you for the last year. The folks in Auburn continue to chase after the changing line like American socialists circa 1936-41 trying to keep up with Uncle Joe's constantly shifting disposition.
As of early this year, I estimated the chance of Paul eventually throwing in for the LP's nomination at 95%, based on the refusal of the candidate and the official campaign to rule that out (an easy thing to do if you really have "no intention" of running third party). Recently I've doubted my own prediction, largely because
the official campaign continues to talk like it's looking forward to a convention fight.
However, the people raising the LP flag aren't just your average bears -- they're people with real Paul connections and affiliations, posting at sites with juice. Eric Garris and Anthony Gregory
are on it at LewRockwell.Com. Justin Raimondo
floats the balloon at AntiWar.Com.
I'd say we're still holding at 95%, or maybe even rising a bit. This doesn't look like a random assortment of spontaneous pleas, it looks like an orchestrated part of what has been planned as a likely bait and switch from the start (bait: Run as a Republican, raise shitloads of money, hope you win but keep your options open; switch: When you lose, take the money and jump your small-fish-in-a-big-pond ass over to a smaller, more congenial pond -- "by popular demand").
Developing ... maybe.
February 07, 2008 08:06 AM
by Garry Reed, The Loose Cannon Libertarian
While mousing through one of my virtual history folders the other day I knocked the pixel dust off of an old article from Ohio headlined, "Belmont County Wants No Guns On Its Properties." Why did I save this snippet? I wondered. A quick review ...
February 07, 2008 05:30 AM
“Here’s one of the most important puzzles of global oil security: Since the late 1970s, Saudi Arabia has pumped the market with oil, fearing that high prices could hurt global growth, reduce demand for Saudi oil, and anger its protector, Uncle Sam. Now, oil has almost doubled in one year to more than $90 a barrel, and the Saudis have barely lifted a finger despite the fear that high oil prices could increase the likelihood of an American, and therefore a global, recession. Why? The answer may define oil in the 21st century — or at least underscore the reasons for the US to seek greater oil independence.” [editor’s note: Two things — (1) under the theory of “abiotic petroleum” there’s no scarcity, nor is there a limit to Saudi-desert-as-source; (2) we’re rapidly reaching a level where sane people are limiting their travel plans in expectation of price-drops soon - SAT] [additional editor’s note: Even assuming that the abiogenic petroleum theory is correct — and the evidence for it looks pretty thin — scarcity would be, um, scarcely affected. The actual and potential amounts of oil would still be finite, as would be extraction capacity - TLK] (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 03:43 AM
“The know-it-alls didn’t know it all. Months of predictions to the contrary notwithstanding, the presidential nominations weren’t all sewn up on Super Tuesday. John McCain didn’t put it away. Mike Huckabee has not been reduced to political irrelevancy. Once again — as with earlier forecasts of Hillary Clinton’s implosion in New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani’s commanding national appeal, and Mitt Romney’s untouchable leads in the early states — the politicos proposed but the voters disposed.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 03:42 AM
“Quick: Who is the strategic victor, to date, of the war in Iraq? Nearly everyone outside the Bush administration (and perhaps some within it) would answer: the Islamic Republic of Iran. The catastrophe of the U.S. occupation of Iraq has bolstered the clerical regime in Tehran, while souring ordinary Iranians on the prospect of U.S.-delivered ‘democracy.’ The occupation has done so by emplacing Iranian-backed Shiite Islamists in power in Baghdad and cooling the jets of those in Washington hoping to ’shock and awe’ Iran’s mullahs.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 03:40 AM
“The Democrats’ Super Tuesday battle offers a revealing yet indeterminate snapshot of a Democratic Party that is unusually energized and firmly divided. Barack Obama won the most states, including pivotal red territory like Missouri, Georgia and Kansas, while Hillary Clinton ran up large margins in the blue strongholds of California, Massachusetts and New Jersey. Final estimates for delegates, which ultimately choose the nominee, were close and still being tabulated overnight. Across the country, over three million more voters turned out in Democratic primaries than Republican contests — a trend that persisted even in traditionally conservative states.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 03:39 AM
“A decent provision for the poor is the true test of civilization, said Samuel Johnson, the great 18th century English author and critic. The U.S. government has just failed its latest pop quiz. Last week, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson approved a plan that will divert $600 million in congressional funds specifically earmarked for Hurricane Katrina-related low-income housing relief along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Where’s the loot going? To expand the port at Gulfport, Miss., which state officials say suffered $50 million in damage during the Category 4 storm. An uncivilized move when you consider that according to most estimates more than 30,000 people in the region are still living in FEMA trailers and mobile homes.” (02/05/08)
February 07, 2008 03:37 AM
“Surprisingly moving Barack Obama music videos? The potential end of the writer’s strike? Cute young deer being saved by helicopters? No no no no no. Here are your most deeply inspiring news stories of the month: A flurry of pink slips fluttered over the job sector as corporate payrolls were sliced like sour pie. Foreclosures are skyrocketing and new home sales across the nation are plummeting faster than Britney Spears’ serotonin levels. A nasty recession is either creeping or flooding in, depending on your perspective and how recently you purchased your home and/or tried to dump your Google stock. Meanwhile, the largest corporation in the world, the one which has consistently raked in the largest and most appalling profits of any organization on Earth … has recently posted the largest profit of any company in American history.” [editor’s note: Although he uses the word “capitalism” (connoting some variation on “free market” to most folks?) to describe this, where “feudal mercantilism” would be far more appropriate, the analysis is otherweise spot-on - SAT] (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 03:35 AM
“Get ready for weeks — if not months — of a tightly fought Democratic presidential race, while last night’s big winner on the GOP side, John McCain, could soon be sitting on the sidelines, secure in victory, trying hard to raise money and pull together a fractious Republican coalition. So far, the Democrats have dramatically outdrawn the Republicans at the polls and generated greater enthusiasm among their core constituencies, especially among women, minorities, and younger voters. A fierce, protracted contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could sour the good feelings — or energize the party even more, depending on how the candidates conduct themselves.” (02/06/08)
February 07, 2008 03:02 AM
February 06, 2008
You know you've gone a little overboard when the man who invented the idea of a tax on Twinkies thinks that your efforts to combat obesity are too extreme.
In Mississippi this week, three state legislators proposed legislation to prohibit restaurants from serving food to obese people. The Twinkie Taxer himself, Yale's Kelly Brownell, was not amused:
"It would be hard to concoct something more ridiculous," says Kelly Brownell, director of Yale University's Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity. "This brings bias against obese individuals to a new and appalling level."
Brownell joins a broad (ha!) coalition opposing the bill which includes PeTA, nutritionists, fat people, and me.
Via CCF and alert reader P.B.M.
February 06, 2008 11:07 PM
David Weigel
wonders why the party of immigration panic is nominating an immigration reformer.
February 06, 2008 10:53 PM
According to
a report in
The New York Times, there's yet another visual-representations-of-Mohammad flap a-brewin'. This time around activists are targeting Wikipedia, whose entry on the Muslim prophet contains two images from medieval Persian manuscripts:
In addition to numerous e-mail messages sent to Wikipedia.org, an online petition cites a prohibition in Islam on images of people. The petition has more than 80,000 "signatures," though many who submitted them toThePetitionSite.com, remained anonymous.
"We have been noticing a lot more similar sounding, similar looking e-mails beginning mid-January," said Jay Walsh, a spokesman for the Wikimedia Foundation in San Francisco, which administers the various online encyclopedias in more than 250 languages. A Frequently Asked Questions page explains the site's polite but firm refusal to remove the images: "Since Wikipedia is an encyclopedia with the goal of representing all topics from a neutral point of view, Wikipedia is not censored for the benefit of any particular group."
The notes left on the petition site come from all over the world. "It's totally unacceptable to print the Prophet's picture," Saadia Bukhari from Pakistan wrote in a message. "It shows insensitivity towards Muslim feelings and should be removed immediately."
The site considered but rejected a compromise that would allow visitors to choose whether to view the page with images.
The Wiki entry is here (it's locked to further editing) and it now contains the following warning to readers of delicate disposition: "This article includes two images of artworks created by Persian Muslim artists which depict the uncovered face of Muhammad. The images are used respectfully in a historical context to illustrate two episodes from the life of Muhammad."
Katherine Mangu-Ward's profile of Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales is here. My interview with Flemming Rose, publisher of those infamous Mohammad cartoons, is here.
February 06, 2008 10:18 PM
Barack Obama's fundraising has surged since the Iowa caucuses; Hillary Clinton's has stayed steady but lagged behind.
Her solution:
Late last month Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million. The loan illustrates Sen. Clinton’s commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation.
It's a hell of a start to a six-day period where she could lose as many as seven primaries. On Saturday, Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana go to the polls. Washington is a caucus where Obama is favored by 20 points, Nebraska is another one of those flyover caucuses that Obama dominated last night, and Louisiana, even post-Katrina, has one of the biggest black electorates in the country. On Sunday there's Maine, on Tuesday there's D.C., Virginia, and Maryland. Clinton has signaled only that she'll compete for Virginia and Maine.
The Politico's Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen
say she should be worried:
She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.
At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone.
One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.
That's the key fact for the Democrats. Clinton can still win, but she badly needed to run up the score on Super Tuesday—it was literally impossible for Obama to make a presence in 22 states over nine days, so her old, national favorability among Democrats helped her break the Obama wave in some states. As the Democrats move on both will have time to hold multiple rallies and town halls in every state. There's one week from the D.C.-Virginia-Maryland primary to Wisconsin. There are two weeks from there to Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.
As to the GOP race... I have a column coming later about the immigration issue and the GOP, but this
map tells most of the story. It's the way California Republicans voted, Mitt Romney in green, John McCain in brown. Romney carried no counties south of Fresno.
February 06, 2008 09:43 PM
by Tony Ryan
Or maybe I should call this Random Thoughts. I've been thinking about what to write this time around and I'm coming up with - not much.
But I have been looking at the Drug War scene and noticing a few things. In my last blog, Serve and Protect ...
February 06, 2008 09:32 PM
“Or maybe I should call this Random Thoughts. I’ve been thinking about what to write this time around and I’m coming up with — not much. But I have been looking at the Drug War scene and noticing a few things. In my last blog, Serve and Protect I wrote about a drug raid in Minneapolis that narrowly missed having someone killed — not for lack of effort on either side (the police at a wrong address based on bad info or the non-offending citizen who didn’t know, at first, who was breaking into his home).” (02/06/08)
February 06, 2008 09:30 PM
“In this remarkable book, Glenn Greenwald solves a difficult problem. President Bush has for several years authorized the National Security Agency to wiretap telephones within the United States without a judicial warrant. Doing so is illegal, but Bush claims that security against terrorism requires it. Here our puzzle arises. The administration thinks that certain wiretaps are necessary. But under existing law, it can readily obtain a warrant from a special court. When warrants have been requested from this court, they have never been denied. Why, then, do the minions of the Bush administration decline to seek a warrant?” (02/06/08)
February 06, 2008 09:26 PM
“Democratic officials are dusting off something they never thought they would have to consult: convention rule books. That’s because there is a real possibility that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will arrive in Denver in late August for the convention roughly tied in their number of delegates elected by primary and caucus voters. If so, then the party’s so-called ’super-delegates’ move front and center — i.e. Democratic governors, members of Congress and other notables, who make up about one-fifth of the total delegate pool and who are free under current rules to commit themselves to any candidate they choose.” (02/06/08)
February 06, 2008 09:16 PM
I haven’t been back in DC for a few months, but day one is already a lot of fun. While EJ Moosa was calling the GOP DOA, the Libertarian Party was acting on it.
Since it’s now likely that John McCain will be the eventual Republican presidential nominee, Shane Cory and I thought it might be appropriate to send the GOP a funeral wreath. LP National Media Coordinator Andrew Davis and I hailed a cab and delivered the pictured wreath along with a condolence card from the Libertarian Party. Andrew delivered while I photographed. The card, addressed to RNC Chairman Mike Duncan, read in part:
Given that it has become readily apparent that Senator McCain will soon be the presidential nominee for the Republican Party, we, the staff of the Libertarian National Committee, send our condolences to you upon the death of small-government principles within the GOP.
Libertarians encourage competition within both the free-market and politics. Unfortunately, with the rise of John McCain and the big-spending practices of the Bush administration, the two-party system has emerged as representing only one philosophy – big-government liberalism.
With your loss, the Libertarian Party will continue to move forwards to represent those American patriots who still believe in smaller government, lower taxes and more individual freedom.
Along with the office staff, I signed the card as the Libertarian Party of Alabama chairman. Because of the local angle, my inscription read: “From Governor Riley’s tax plan to the man who brought us McCain-Feingold, small-government sentimentalities are surely dead within the GOP.”
Moosa wrote:
There is no room for liberty-minded people in the GOP tent. The party is in disarray, scrambling to prepare for a contest between two of the biggest socialists to run against them in decades.
That fear is what drove voters to pick other candidates over Ron Paul. They like Paul BUT….it’s too close. Too close to stand on principle. Too close to take the chance. Hillary or Obama is just around the corner.
With or without Ron Paul, we must take this movement, this fund- raising strength and move it to the Libertarian Party and now. We must not fade back into the woodwork. The Republican Party is dead and it simply not going to return.
Trying to sell the Ron Paul message to a Republican crowd is a little like selling Toyotas at a Ford Dealership. The Toyota may have great quality, but they came to Ford to buy a Ford.
Paul’s message broadcast from the Libertarian tent will stand tall. Others on the fringe of both parties will be attracted to the Libertarian movement. Only then, with a solid 15% of the electorate, will the message be taken seriously.
If Paul does not want to do this, I certainly understand. He has made the great effort to change the Republican Party from within. But he cannot cures what ails the Republican Party. It is rotten to the core. And they have treated Paul and his followers with disdain and ridicule.
First there was McCain-Feingold, then there was McCain-Kennedy. The only question remaining is which Democratic name will be love-linked to McCain’s in November. Will it be McCain-Obama or McCain-Clinton?
February 06, 2008 09:13 PM
“It’s the morning after and America has spoken. I believe that the voting process is truly one of the last freedoms that we as Americans enjoy; and that more people don’t take advantage of that freedom, really frightens me. Maybe this is the year that we will see change, real change; from the people up. It’s not sure at this point just what the rhetoric really boils down to; and I’m not saying I agree or disagree; but that Americans came out in droves and took the step to be heard is what this election is all about. I pray that the momentum towards true freedom stays it’s course no matter who the final outcome may be. If it were me, I know how I’d begin:” (02/06/08)
February 06, 2008 09:07 PM
The Ron Paul campaign announced this morning that at least 42 national delegates spots have been won by Paul.
Alaska: 3
Colorado: 4
Iowa: 4
Louisiana: 3
Maine: 3
Minnesota: 9
Nevada: 8
N. Dakota: 5
West Vir.: 3
February 06, 2008 09:07 PM
“All too often, licenses simply represent government sanction, nothing more. Despite what politicians claim, licensing laws are not designed to protect the public, but to eliminate competition by protecting those individuals and companies already established in the specified field. This holds especially true in the heavily regulated world of medicine.” (02/06/08)
February 06, 2008 08:59 PM
“The Bush administration’s attention is focused on the Middle East, but the Korean Peninsula also requires attention. The impending inauguration of conservative Lee Myung-bak, who won South Korea’s presidency in a landslide, provides an excellent opportunity to refashion the U.S.-South Korean relationship. President-elect Lee has promised to forge better relations than did outgoing President Roh Moo-hyun, who was not trusted by Washington.” (02/03/08)
February 06, 2008 08:56 PM
“Credit shortages make available capital a much sought-after commodity. With the world’s financial industries struggling to find investors to make up sub-prime mortgage-related losses, sovereign wealth funds are taking the opportunity to invest heavily in some of the biggest banks, stock exchanges, and private-equity firms across the globe.” (02/06/08)
February 06, 2008 08:51 PM
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 6, 2008
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – With the results of many of the “Super Tuesday” primaries and caucuses now finalized, the Ron Paul campaign is now projecting that it has at least 42 delegates to the national convention secured.
While much of the focus in yesterday’s Super Tuesday contests focused on preference poll numbers, Ron Paul caucus-goers were focused on securing delegates to the national convention. With dedicated supporters and an organization focused purely on securing delegates, the campaign has secured more delegates to the national convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul than caucus straw polls might otherwise suggest.
According to campaign projections, a minimum of 24 delegates were won in yesterday’s contests. When added to projected delegates coming from strong showings in Iowa (4), Nevada (8), Louisiana (3) and Maine (3), that brings the total delegate count to 42 delegates or more.
“Our goal has always been to walk into the national GOP convention with as many delegates as possible,” said Ron Paul 2008 campaign manager Lew Moore. “The number of delegates we won yesterday could very well be the difference in a Convention where no one has a first-ballot majority. With Dr. Paul’s home state of Texas coming up, we feel we can enter the convention with a substantial number of delegates.”
In an agreement first reported by West Virginia television station WSAZ, three Ron Paul delegates were secured through an agreement with the Mike Huckabee campaign at the West Virginia state convention early Tuesday. Ron Paul delegates to the state convention swung their sizable support to Huckabee – putting Huckabee over the top – in exchange for the delegates.
According to campaign projections from last night’s results at least 3 delegates were won in Alaska, 5 delegates were won in North Dakota, 9 delegates were won in Minnesota, and 4 delegates were won in Colorado.
Additionally the results of the Louisiana Caucus may still change in favor of Ron Paul, where an ongoing legal challenge may result in most of that state’s delegates going towards Ron Paul after state GOP officials violated their own rules to improperly put delegates from other campaigns on the ballots.
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February 06, 2008 08:42 PM
He inspired a zany American
political party and a decent
Beatles song, managed to keep the Beach Boys' mercurial Mike Love in some sort of
spiritual calm, and was all-around an interesting character in one of the late 20th century's more interesting stories: the increasing number of religious and spiritual options and technologies available in the cornucopian West. Transcendental Meditation guru Maharishi Mahesh Yogi finally
transcended the physical world.
February 06, 2008 08:21 PM
Radley Balko
warns The Weekly Standard against blaming Republican failures on libertarianism.
February 06, 2008 08:09 PM
...at the Botsford Archives, a now-digitized collection of video interviews with leading British libertarian scholars and activists conducted during the early 1990s. Spend some time with Kenneth Minogue, Lord Ralph Harris, and Norman Barry, among many others.
The modern British libertarian movement has a long and fascinating story, and the Botford Archives, hosted by the British Libertarian Alliance, is a great place to start. For the modern American libertarian movement, there is of course my book Radicals for Capitalism: A Freewheeling History of the Modern American Libertarian Movement.
February 06, 2008 07:51 PM
With about 80% of the total, according to the Secretary of State.
The Green and Independence parties of Minnesota will caucus on March 4.
February 06, 2008 07:21 PM
Over the weekend, Virginia Beach police
confiscated two posters from a local Abercrombie & Fitch outlet and charged the store's manager with violating a city obscenity ordinance by displaying them in a location open to minors. The ordinance, violation of which can be punished by a fine of up to $2,500 and up to a year in jail, makes it a crime to "display for commercial purposes in a manner whereby juveniles may examine or peruse" a picture "which depicts nudity, sexual conduct or sadomasochistic abuse and which is harmful to juveniles." On Monday, a local TV station
reports, police and City Attorney Les Lillie decided to drop the obscenity charges because "the displays were not technically obscene." You can judge for yourself whether the posters 1) depict nudity and 2) harm juveniles. Lillie decided police had probable cause to think so, although there was not enough evidence to prosecute. An Abercrombie & Fitch spokesman had this to say:
The marketing images in question show less skin than you see any summer day at the beach. And certainly less than the plumber working on your kitchen sink. This is an incredible over reaction by city officials that would be comical except for its potentially serious legal implications. 
It's still at least little comical, I think, especially since Abercrombie & Fitch thrives on this sort of attention. In this case, though, the chain may not have gone far enough: The posters have been hanging in hundreds of stores across the country since mid-January, but the Virginia Beach outlet is the only one where the manager has been asked to take them down. In addition to citing complaints from customers, a police spokesman "said the ads made it difficult for police to enforce city dress codes, specifically noting teens who wore droopy jeans."
[via Celebstoner]
February 06, 2008 07:20 PM
The Obama-friendly conservative Dan Riehl
writes:
electing the first black president would ultimately do more to pry away black and other minority voters from a decadent American liberalism, than would anything else....One could no longer make the argument that America is racist, or unfair. Not when a black man has risen to the highest office in the land.
I've heard this argument from many people -- sometimes even from libertarians, who you wouldn't expect to be so government-centric. While I'm not sure what it means to say that America (all of it? some of it?) "is" racist, the presence of a black man in the Oval Office would hardly mean that no American blacks face institutional barriers, any more than the presence of black officers on a police force means that blacks don't face racially driven
police harrassment. Yes, a President Obama would be a symbol of
progress in race relations. But it is an open question whether he would reverse the policies that helped produce the racial isolation of working-class blacks, the disproportionate number of blacks in prison, or the sorry state of the urban schools that so many blacks attend. It is even conceivable -- not necessarily likely, but conceivable -- that Obama, like many
black mayors, would actually make life worse for African Americans.
For the record, I think Obama is the most palatable (or the least unpalatable) of the four frontrunners, mostly because of his stance on Iraq. I do not believe his election would usher in a new age where racism and unfairness have been banished, and where whites can confidently pat themselves on the back without worrying that some black man will interrupt with a complaint.
February 06, 2008 05:50 PM
Early unofficial Green Party Primary returns:
California (96% reporting)
Ralph Nader – 16,872 – 61.1%
Cynthia McKinney – 7,138 – 25.9%
Elaine Brown – 1,259 – 4.6%
Kat Swift – 846 – 3.0%
Kent Mesplay – 564 – 2.0%
Jesse Johnson – 509 – 1.8%
Jared Ball – 446 – 1.6%
Arkansas (37% reporting)
Uncommitted – 1,719 – 87.57%
Cynthia McKinney – 116 – 5.91%
Jared Ball – 54 – 2.75%
Kent Mesplay – 48 – 2.45%
Kat Swift – 26 – 1.32%
Note that there has been a substantial increase in the reported “Uncommitted” category in just the last several hours by over 1,000 votes.
Massachusetts and Illinois returns are as yet unknown.
An additional note: in terms of delegates for the Green Party Nominating Convention, of the 836 delegates available, California determines 168 (20%), Arkansas determines 8 (1%), Illinois determines 44 (5%) and Massachusetts determines 32 (4%).
The Green Party will be participating in the Washington DC primary next Tuesday Feb. 12.
February 06, 2008 05:38 PM
The U.N. expects another bumper crop of opium in Afghanistan this year, close to last year's all-time record of about 9,000 tons:
Cultivation is still increasing in the insurgency-hit south and west of the country, the report said, and taxes on the crop have become a major source of revenue for the Taliban insurgency.
"This is a windfall for antigovernment forces, further evidence of the dangerous link between opium and insurgency," Antonio Maria Costa, the executive director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, wrote in the report's preface.
Since Costa, an economist, knows better, I assume someone else in his office accidentally excised the word prohibition after opium in that sentence. This is the year, incidentally, by which the U.N. planned to achieve "a drastic simultaneous reduction of both illicit supply and demand for drugs." When that goal was set, Costa's predecessor, Pino Arlacchi, confidently declared "there is no reason [worldwide opium and coca production] cannot be eliminated."
The U.N. report is here. My columns on the last two record-setting Afghan opium crops are here and here.
February 06, 2008 05:17 PM
